Earlier this week the Governor sent a letter to Congress asking them to support health reform but noting that the cost of Medi-Cal expansions could be as much as $1 billion. To his credit, unlike earlier estimates, the Governor noted that this estimate did not include offsetting cost savings to California.
Health Access has done an estimate of the estimate of the Medi-Cal/Healthy Families impacts of health reform based on our best understanding of the national reform proposals that were in print until today.
The bottom line is that we estimate that the net impact of the Senate Finance Mark for California state government would be costs of about $750 million annually plus a loss of $550 million in DSH funding while HR3200 would cost California about $200 million annually plus a loss of $330 million in DSH funding.
We will revise it again once we have read the House bill that was released this morning! Preliminary information indicates that a larger Medicaid expansion is included in the new House bill: that will be a good thing in terms of affordability and benefits for those covered though a challenge in terms of assuring adequate access to physicians.
Health Access has supported the earlier version of HR3200 for many reasons—the impact on California’s budget is on the long list of good things about the earlier House proposal.